“This week: Fed’s cautious tone lifts yields and pressures gold. Next week: watch NFP, ISM, and US GDP data. Full recap, top movers, and trading outlook.”
🔶 This Week in One Minute
Macro:
Markets adjusted expectations after the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious stance despite cutting rates by 25 bps. The decision was seen as a “dovish hold,” with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence.
Risk sentiment:
Mild risk-on tone — equities advanced on earnings optimism, while safe-havens like gold corrected lower as bond yields rebounded.
Biggest move:
Gold (XAUUSD) plunged around −6% from record highs near $4,280 → $4,010 amid stronger yields and profit-taking.
Highlights:
- 🏦 US 10-year yield surged to ~4.09%, up nearly 30 bps w/w.
- 💵 DXY strengthened toward 99.70, its highest in 3 months.
- 📉 Gold logged its third straight weekly decline.
- 📈 S&P 500 gained ~1.9% as tech earnings lifted sentiment.
Sources: Reuters, FXStreet, Yahoo Finance, IG Market Navigator.
📈 Top Movers (Weekly)
| Asset | Weekly Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | − 6.02 % | Fed caution, stronger USD & rising yields. |
| DXY | + 0.87 % | Dollar bid on hawkish Fed tone. |
| EURUSD | − 0.92 % | Euro pressured by divergence vs Fed. |
| US 10Y Yield | + 30 bps | Bond sell-off on reduced rate-cut hopes. |
🗓️ Next Week’s Key Events
| Day | Event (WIB) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Mon (Nov 3) | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (21:00) | 53.0 |
| Tue (Nov 4) | FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (03:00) | − 25 bps cut expected |
| Wed (Nov 5) | US GDP Q3 Advance (19:30) | + 2.2 % q/q |
| Thu (Nov 6) | US PCE Price Index (19:30) | + 0.3 % m/m |
| Fri (Nov 7) | US Non-Farm Payrolls (19:30) | + 150 K jobs |
🧭 Trading Outlook
Bias:
⚖️ Neutral-to-bullish on risk assets while DXY < 100.00 and US10Y < 4.20 %.
Gold likely stays range-bound unless yields fall sharply below 4.0 %.
Catalysts to watch:
- FOMC tone → confirmation of future cuts
- US labor data → potential volatility spike
- Tech earnings continuation → risk sentiment driver
Liquidity focus:
Asia–US overlaps expected to bring most momentum, especially Tuesday–Friday sessions
Key Technical Levels
| Instrument | R1 | R2 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | 2 065 | 2 085 | 1 985 | 1 960 |
| EURUSD | 1.185 | 1.200 | 1.155 | 1.142 |
| DXY | 101.00 | — | 98.50 | — |